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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 12 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP