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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 77

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 1 yard (38-G.Winn).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model