4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 72

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-G.Winn.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model