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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to DET 4, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 15 for 11 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model