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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 48 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model