4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

JAX
39.0%
BAL
61.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • BAL defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

JAX

James Sample S Out Shoulder
Michael Bennett DT Questionable Hamstring
Dan Skuta LB Questionable Groin
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Hamstring
Allen Hurns WR Questionable Foot
Zane Beadles G Probable Knee
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Toby Gerhart RB Probable Groin
Julius Thomas TE Probable Abdomen

BAL

Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Jeremy Zuttah C Questionable Shoulder
Chris Canty DE Probable Not Injury Related
Crockett Gillmore TE Probable Shoulder
Eugene Monroe T Probable Shoulder
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Tray Walker CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 22
–
BAL 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:34 TD JAX (2:34) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 11:38 TD BAL (11:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 03:32 FG JAX (3:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 10 – BAL 7
  • Q2 01:17 TD BAL (1:17) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 87-M.Williams for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – BAL 13
  • Q3 14:31 FG JAX (14:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 13 – BAL 14
  • Q4 13:08 TD JAX (13:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – BAL 14
  • Q4 07:36 TD BAL (7:36) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 13-C.Givens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-37-J.Cyprien, Defensive Holding, declined. JAX 19 – BAL 20
  • Q4 00:00 FG JAX (:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 22 – BAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:44) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 48 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (12:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to BAL 47 for 12 yards (35-D.McCray). Penalty on BAL-50-A.McClellan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 47.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 57%

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 80-C.Gillmore to JAX 35 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 19%

    (:56) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to BAL 46 for 14 yards (46-C.Tinker). PENALTY on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 32.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-B.Walters to JAX 13 for 2 yards (43-R.Mostert).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (3:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:57) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (14:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:05) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to JAX 40 for 42 yards (58-J.Tripp). PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Z.Smith), Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to JAX 35, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-B.Walters to JAX 37 for 2 yards (28-B.Trawick). PENALTY on JAX-27-D.Gratz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 35.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross MUFFS catch, touched at BAL 33, RECOVERED by JAX-41-N.Marshall at BAL 37.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (4:05) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 38%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.