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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model