Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to JAX 40 for 42 yards (58-J.Tripp). PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.92 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model