Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to JAX 35, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-B.Walters to JAX 37 for 2 yards (28-B.Trawick). PENALTY on JAX-27-D.Gratz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model