Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to BAL 47 for 12 yards (35-D.McCray). Penalty on BAL-50-A.McClellan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.26 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 91, worth -5.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model