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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 80-C.Gillmore to JAX 35 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model