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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.06 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model