Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 87

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(10:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 35 for -5 yards (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.50 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 87, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model