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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

KC
45.9%
DEN
54.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than DEN
  • DEN offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Peyton Manning (DEN): -0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

KC

Allen Bailey DE Out Calf
Ben Grubbs G Out Neck
James O'Shaughnessy TE Out Foot
Ramik Wilson LB Questionable Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Mike Devito DE Probable Concussion
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin

DEN

DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle
C.J. Anderson RB Probable Ankle
Owen Daniels TE Probable Shoulder
Virgil Green TE Probable Finger
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Ronnie Hillman RB Probable Quadricep
Jordan Norwood WR Probable Hamstring
Shane Ray LB Probable Knee
Louis Vasquez G Probable Back
Peyton Manning QB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 29
–
DEN 13

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:26 TD KC (11:26) 35-C.West up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 06:24 FG KC (6:24) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – DEN 0
  • Q2 11:40 FG KC (11:40) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – DEN 0
  • Q2 03:34 FG KC (3:34) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 16 – DEN 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 19 – DEN 0
  • Q3 10:50 FG KC (10:50) 5-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 22 – DEN 0
  • Q4 11:23 TD KC (11:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-43-T.Ward, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty is Blow to the head. Player is ejected. Penalty will be added to kickoff KC 28 – DEN 0
  • Q4 05:31 TD DEN (5:31) 23-R.Hillman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – DEN 6
  • Q4 01:54 TD DEN (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 12-A.Caldwell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – DEN 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for no gain (36-K.Webster).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 74%

    (6:24) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to KC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 36 for 11 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DEN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 25 for 11 yards (51-F.Zombo).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 47%

    (13:35) 35-C.West left tackle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 72%

    (11:40) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 35 for -5 yards (52-C.Nelson).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 24%

    (6:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (3:34) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to KC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (:04) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (14:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-D.Thomas. PENALTY on DEN-31-O.Bolden, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at KC 44.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

    (10:50) 5-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 47%

    (6:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-46-A.Brewer.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 88-D.Thomas to KC 30 for 8 yards (21-S.Smith).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (12:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Berry (21-S.Smith) at KC -6. 29-E.Berry to KC 19 for 25 yards (73-M.Garcia).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 76%

    (3:12) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 12-A.Caldwell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.