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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 80

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to KC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model