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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 86

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-D.Thomas. PENALTY on DEN-31-O.Bolden, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at KC 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 86, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model