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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model