4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 83

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-46-A.Brewer.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP