Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 78

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(10:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for no gain (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model