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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 7

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 29

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 12-A.Caldwell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.98 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model