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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 35-C.West left tackle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model