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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 4, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP