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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

MIA
38.2%
PHI
61.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.039 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.035 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Spencer Paysinger LB Doubtful Neck
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Foot
Billy Turner G Questionable Knee
Jordan Cameron TE Probable Hamstring
Jelani Jenkins LB Probable Ankle
Jordan Kovacs S Probable Knee
Brice McCain CB Probable Knee
Damien Williams RB Probable Hand
Koa Misi LB Probable Foot
Jordan Phillips DT Probable Knee

PHI

Josh Andrews G Out Concussion
Jerome Couplin S Out Shoulder
Jason Peters T Questionable Back
Nelson Agholor WR Probable Ankle
Kiko Alonso LB Probable Knee
Trey Burton TE Probable Hamstring
Riley Cooper WR Probable Toe
Malcolm Jenkins S Probable Concussion
Ryan Mathews RB Probable Groin
DeMarco Murray RB Probable Groin
DeMeco Ryans LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
PHI 19

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:32 FG MIA (10:32) 3-A.Franks 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – PHI 0
  • Q1 08:51 TD PHI (8:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short middle to 13-J.Huff for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh]. MIA 3 – PHI 6
  • Q1 08:41 SAF PHI (8:41) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA -6 for -7 yards (26-W.Thurmond). FUMBLES (26-W.Thurmond) [26-W.Thurmond], ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. MIA 3 – PHI 9
  • Q1 04:48 TD PHI (4:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PHI 15
  • Q2 08:21 FG MIA (8:21) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 6 – PHI 16
  • Q2 05:57 TD MIA (5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 26-L.Miller for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – PHI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – PHI 16
  • Q4 10:23 FG PHI (10:23) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIA 20 – PHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (10:32) 3-A.Franks 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:10) 4-M.Darr punts 32 yards to PHI 29, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-30-Z.Bowman.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (12:55) 6-C.Sturgis 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:21) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:45) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 49-Z.Vigil, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, ball out of bounds at PHI 12.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:06) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to PHI 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 33 for 12 yards (92-J.Denney).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 28%

    (1:02) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:27) 4-M.Darr punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 19 for 7 yards (30-Z.Bowman). MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (13:04) 8-D.Jones punts 25 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:47) 4-M.Darr punts 64 yards to PHI 5, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 35 for 30 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PHI-16-S.Ajirotutu, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 21.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:29) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to PHI 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 33 for 7 yards (92-J.Denney).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (3:17) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-J.Landry to MIA 13 for 3 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 52%

    (12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles up the middle to MIA 35 for 2 yards (22-J.Taylor).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (10:23) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:33) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to PHI 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (8:09) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-38-E.Biggers.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:37) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to PHI 45, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to 50 for 5 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:51) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to PHI 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 10 yards (92-J.Denney).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews to 50 for 6 yards (20-R.Jones; 52-K.Sheppard) [50-O.Vernon].