Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

(3:06) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to PHI 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 33 for 12 yards (92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model