4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model