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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 3-A.Franks 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model