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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-J.Landry to MIA 13 for 3 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model