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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles up the middle to MIA 35 for 2 yards (22-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model