4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to PHI 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model