Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 93

Miami Dolphins 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

(6:37) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to PHI 45, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to 50 for 5 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.29 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 93, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model