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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-M.Darr punts 32 yards to PHI 29, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-30-Z.Bowman.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP