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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(:58) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 33, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV. PENALTY on LV-22-T.Jones, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model