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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 16:05 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
39.7%
OAK
60.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.185 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.015 EPA/dropback
  • LV offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Wind 31 mph
  • LV defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Eric Kendricks LB Doubtful Ribs
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Concussion
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hand
Marcus Sherels CB Questionable Shoulder
Sharrif Floyd DT Probable Knee
Linval Joseph DT Probable Foot
Terence Newman CB Probable Concussion
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Probable Shoulder
Brian Robison DE Probable Ankle

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Rodney Hudson C Doubtful Ankle
T.J. Carrie CB Probable Hip
Amari Cooper WR Probable Quadricep
Latavius Murray RB Probable Concussion
Clive Walford TE Probable Quadricep
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 30
–
OAK 14

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD MIN (11:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-R.Ellison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 01:36 FG MIN (1:36) 3-B.Walsh 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 10 – OAK 0
  • Q2 10:36 FG MIN (10:36) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – OAK 0
  • Q2 05:59 TD LV (5:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-C.Walford for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-24-C.Munnerlyn, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. MIN 13 – OAK 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD LV (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-H.Smith]. MIN 13 – OAK 13
  • Q2 01:52 TD MIN 11-S.Janikowski kicks 58 yards from LV 35 to MIN 7. 84-C.Patterson for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – OAK 14
  • Q4 03:54 FG MIN (3:54) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 23 – OAK 14
  • Q4 02:03 TD MIN (2:03) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 29 – OAK 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:27) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to MIN 40, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (5:21) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (1:36) 3-B.Walsh 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to MIN 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (10:36) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:58) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 33, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV. PENALTY on LV-22-T.Jones, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 10%

    (10:15) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 3, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer. Minnesota challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 10:03.)

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:31) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to LV 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Carrie to LV 27 for 2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 9%

    (1:08) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 19 for 9 yards (22-T.Jones).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (10:57) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.McGill), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:42) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 21 for 6 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (3:54) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.