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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 19 for 9 yards (22-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 9% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 91% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model