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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.McGill), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model