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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model