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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.07 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model