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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 3-B.Walsh 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP