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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 80

New England Patriots 24 – New York Giants 26

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NE 32 for 12 yards (54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -1.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model