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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

NE
58.7%
NYG
41.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Eli Manning (NYG) +0.163 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.303 EPA/dropback
  • NYG defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 26
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Toe
Jamie Collins LB Out Illness
Tre' Jackson G Out Knee
Sebastian Vollmer T Out Concussion
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Hand
Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Knee
Jabaal Sheard DE Questionable Ankle
Julian Edelman WR Probable Knee
Duron Harmon S Probable Knee

NYG

Uani 'Unga LB Out Neck
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Larry Donnell TE Out Neck
J.T. Thomas LB Out Ankle
Prince Amukamara CB Out Pectoral
Leon McFadden CB Questionable Groin
Justin Pugh G Probable Illness
Geoff Schwartz G Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
NYG 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 TD NE (6:48) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 88-S.Chandler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 06:03 TD NYG (6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 13:02 FG NE (13:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – NYG 7
  • Q2 03:47 FG NYG (3:47) 3-J.Brown 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NE 10 – NYG 10
  • Q2 00:18 TD NYG (:18) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 17-D.Harris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – NYG 16
  • Q3 09:37 FG NYG (9:37) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NE 10 – NYG 20
  • Q3 04:52 TD NE (4:52) 29-L.Blount left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – NYG 20
  • Q3 00:54 FG NYG (:54) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NE 17 – NYG 23
  • Q4 11:51 TD NE (11:51) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – NYG 23
  • Q4 01:50 FG NYG (1:50) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NE 24 – NYG 26
  • Q4 00:06 FG NE (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 27 – NYG 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:02) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to NYG 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 31 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-46-J.Morris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 30. Officially, a return for 10 yards.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:29) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to NE 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (13:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:11) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYG 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 46 for 11 yards (53-E.Martin).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (3:47) 3-J.Brown 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 18%

    (1:17) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYG 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 16 for 3 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (9:37) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:09) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 44 for 17 yards (53-E.Martin).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 18%

    (6:36) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to NE 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola to NYG 7 for 82 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 61%

    (:54) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:14) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to NE 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 34 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 29. Officially, a punt return for 2 yards.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (1:50) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NE 32 for 12 yards (54-J.Casillas).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 58%

    (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.