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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 36

New England Patriots 24 – New York Giants 26

What Actually Happened

(:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model