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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to NE 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP