Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(:47) 2-D.Butler punts 37 yards to CIN 32, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-B.Tate to CIN 37 for 5 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.83 EP
52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model