4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 20:30 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CIN
37.7%
ARI
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.302 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.276 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
ARI 29
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Michael Johnson DE Doubtful Back
Adam Jones CB Doubtful Foot
Pat Sims DT Doubtful Knee
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Carlos Dunlap DE Probable Shoulder
Andre Smith T Probable Concussion
Shawn Williams S Probable Ankle

ARI

Cory Redding DT Out Ankle
Jonathan Cooper G Doubtful Knee
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring
John Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Markus Golden LB Questionable Ankle
Mike Iupati G Questionable Neck
Justin Bethel CB Probable Illness
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Rashad Johnson S Probable Ribs
Lyle Sendlein C Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 31
–
ARI 34

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:26 TD CIN (:26) (Shotgun) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 09:52 TD ARI (9:52) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 85-D.Fells for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 01:12 TD CIN (1:12) 32-J.Hill up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – ARI 7
  • Q3 11:32 TD ARI (11:32) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 14-J.Nelson for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – ARI 13
  • Q3 05:37 TD ARI (5:37) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-Jo.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – ARI 20
  • Q3 01:32 TD ARI (1:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 31-D.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – ARI 27
  • Q4 12:03 TD CIN (12:03) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-J.Hill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – ARI 28
  • Q4 06:31 FG ARI (6:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. CIN 21 – ARI 31
  • Q4 03:49 TD CIN (3:49) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – ARI 31
  • Q4 01:08 FG CIN (1:08) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 31 – ARI 31
  • Q4 00:06 FG ARI (:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. CIN 31 – ARI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:57) 2-D.Butler punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-B.Tate to ARI 43 for 41 yards (96-K.Martin). PENALTY on CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:52) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:47) 2-D.Butler punts 37 yards to CIN 32, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-B.Tate to CIN 37 for 5 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:14) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 20 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:30) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 6 yards (36-S.Williams).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (12:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ARI 6 for 10 yards (26-R.Johnson). ARI-26-R.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:08) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:52) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to CIN 16, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (1:08) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.