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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 20 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model