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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model