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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model