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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 2-D.Butler punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-B.Tate to ARI 43 for 41 yards (96-K.Martin). PENALTY on CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP