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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP