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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DAL
48.6%
MIA
51.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Hamstring
Ryan Russell DE Out Abdomen
Brice Butler WR Out Hamstring
Darren McFadden RB Questionable Groin
Jeremy Mincey DE Questionable Thigh
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Toe
Nick Hayden DT Probable Ankle
Anthony Hitchens LB Probable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Back
Sean Lee LB Probable Concussion
Rolando McClain LB Probable Foot
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Brandon Carr CB Probable Shoulder
Barry Church S Probable Ankle
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Ankle
Spencer Paysinger LB Doubtful Neck
Brice McCain CB Questionable Knee
Koa Misi LB Questionable Abdomen
Michael Thomas S Probable Shoulder
Damien Williams RB Probable Ankle
Jamil Douglas G Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 24
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 85-G.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-R.McClain at MIA 12. 55-R.McClain for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 01:23 TD DAL (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-83-T.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 00:23 TD MIA (:23) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – MIA 6
  • Q3 05:26 TD MIA (5:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – MIA 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass deep middle to 88-D.Bryant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – MIA 14
  • Q4 09:23 FG DAL (9:23) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 24 – MIA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (12:25) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to DAL 4, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:40) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to MIA 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%

    (8:15) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:37) 78-C.Brown reported in as eligible. 20-D.McFadden up the middle to DAL 49 for 4 yards (21-B.Grimes).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:01) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 19 for no gain (52-K.Sheppard). PENALTY on DAL-15-D.Street, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:30) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to MIA 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Landry to MIA 42 for 12 yards (89-G.Escobar).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (9:53) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 33%

    (8:46) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to DAL 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:30) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to MIA 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-27-J.Wilcox. PENALTY on DAL-59-A.Hitchens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 32.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:08) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-L.Whitehead to MIA 36 for 18 yards (4-M.Darr). PENALTY on MIA-4-M.Darr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (9:23) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 17%

    (6:37) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to DAL 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (1:09) 20-D.McFadden right tackle to MIA 38 for -2 yards (93-N.Suh; 79-D.Shelby).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 8 for -22 yards (90-D.Lawrence).